Investing & Markets
Chips, the AI supply chain, macro and money flows: slowly making sense of markets. 299 posts.
The Index Is at a High, Most Stocks Are Already in a Bear Market: Notes on Vincent Deluard
Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #655: StoneX global macro strategist Vincent Deluard uses the 200-day moving average, single-stock correlation, tax receipts and a shadow oil price to explain how an index at an all-time high can coexist with a bear market in most stocks. Educational personal notes, not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.
She Outsold Jane Austen and Nobody Remembers Her: Odd Lots on Maria Edgeworth
On 23 October 2026, Bloomberg's Odd Lots hosted Jeanna Smialek, New York Times Brussels bureau chief, on her book The Invisible Hand of Maria Edgeworth. Edgeworth wrote from 1795 to 1815, outsold Jane Austen, and made Byron complain she had replaced him as the lion of the season. These are my notes on how ideas travel, who gets the credit, and why the caveat Ricardo added to his own theory never made it into the canon. Educational reading notes, not investment advice.
A Brain Cap That Looks Like a Bicycle Helmet, and a Morning That Started With 22 Pills: Notes on War on the Rocks and a New Approach to Post-Traumatic Stress
On 2026-10-22 War on the Rocks hosted Eric Juan and Jeff Linquist on EEG-guided transcranial magnetic stimulation for post-traumatic stress. These are listening notes: what holds up in the 52%, 68% and 170-morphine-equivalent figures, and where cross-trial comparison breaks down. Educational reading-method discussion, not medical or investment advice; talk to your own physician about treatment.
Affirm: The Numbers Make Sense Once You File It Under Payment Network
Notes from Business Breakdowns EP.249 on Affirm: why Fraser Christie files it alongside American Express, which path a rate shock travels through its P&L, and the conditions under which the whole argument breaks. Educational business-model notes, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
He Stopped at Kilometre Seven — Notes on Gooaye EP707
Notes on Gooaye EP707 (21 October 2026): a run cut short by the sun, a market where great earnings move nothing, the clean-room bottleneck behind substrate shortages, and how to recount your position after buying near the top. Educational, not investment advice.
Odd Lots Notes: A Socialist Who Says Markets Are Good
Notes on the 22 October 2026 Odd Lots interview with Bhaskar Sunkara, co-author of The Blueprint: he takes the Mises–Hayek side of the calculation debate, keeps markets and consumer choice in his model, has new firms borrow from public banks at risk-priced rates, caps manager-to-worker pay ratios at four or six to one, and sets benchmark wages by occupation (a line cook at $15 an hour) — while calling the efficiency claim 'a very soft claim' himself. Educational listening notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.
“Thirty to Fifty Cents of Every Overrun Dollar”: Where US Nuclear Financing Actually Gets Stuck
Notes from the October 20, 2026 Columbia Energy Exchange with Julie Kozeracki of the DOE's Office of Energy Dominance Financing: how a 30–50% investment tax credit caps overrun risk, why a $17.5 billion long-lead-item order buys back three years, and why the real obstacle to new build sits with equity investors rather than permitting. Educational notes, not investment advice; no price targets or stock recommendations.
Doubt Without Fear: The AI Bond Market Starts Sorting Good Risk From Bad
Notes after listening to The Compound and Friends from October 20, 2026: Netflix losing the attention war, SpaceX swapping out its own category, what widening AI credit spreads actually signal, and what market breadth can and cannot predict. Educational market-reading notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Before a State Breaks, Which Layer Goes First? Notes on Odd Lots with James Robinson
Listening notes on the Bloomberg Odd Lots live episode from Chicago (21 Oct 2026) with Nobel laureate James Robinson: extractive institutions, the failure of inclusion, and how industrial policy avoids capture. Educational notes on institutions and investing frameworks — not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.
Designing, Building and Consuming Your Own Chips: The Hardest Claim in Supply Chained's Terafab Episode
The 20 October 2026 episode of Supply Chained covers the TSMC–Terafab talks. This post unpacks John's argument that captive-only fabs lock their own yields: how it follows, who survived it historically, and the conditions under which it fails. Educational listening notes — no investment advice, no price targets.
One Person Running a Hundred Agents: What Anthropic Rewriting Git Tells Us About the New Bar for Companies
Notes after listening to TechWave EP160. Anthropic now merges 30,000 code changes a day and built its own version control system, Scion; SpaceXAI engineer Lauren Tan ships 2,500 code updates a month. The bar has moved from model capability to how clean your environment is. Educational observation, not investment advice, no individual stocks discussed.
The Foundation Is Being Rebuilt, But You Can Only Swap One Thing at a Time — Notes on The Circuit, Oct 19, 2026
Notes on the October 19, 2026 episode of The Circuit covering SEMICON West and OCP: TSMC's larger reticle, N5 fabs converted to N3, TSMC staff doing site checks at data centers, and why liquid cooling, optics and 800VDC cannot all happen at once. Educational personal commentary; not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.
Last Ship Wins: Christina Cacioppo on Holding a Software Company Together in the AI Era
Listening notes on Invest Like the Best EP.496. Vanta founder Christina Cacioppo on token pricing, eating inference costs to buy usage, an eight-year codebase turning into debt, the talent war, and the multiple compression. Educational notes only, no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
You Can't Boil the Ocean: The Trade-Offs Behind a Blood Pressure Ring
In the 19 October 2026 episode of Medsider, Vital Signals CEO Tom Moss describes going from an emergency room reading of 250 systolic to shipping a calibration-free blood pressure ring, and the trade-offs behind a 792-subject validation study, component sourcing, and licensing versus building. An educational listening note about how to read R&D and validation claims; no investment advice and no stock recommendations.
2,500 Filings, Zero Denials — Notes on Odd Lots with CME's Terry Duffy
Bloomberg Odd Lots, live in Chicago, October 20, 2026: CME Group CEO Terry Duffy on loosening rules, perpetual futures, and the real bottleneck behind 24/7 markets. Educational listening notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Seinfeld's Seven Billion Dollars: How a Sitcom Nobody Wanted Kept the Equity
Notes after listening to Acquired's October 18, 2026 episode on Seinfeld: how roughly $5 billion in syndication revenue flowed over thirty years, and how the now-repealed Fin-Syn rules created an ownership structure that can't be rebuilt today. Educational only; no investment advice and no stock recommendations.
India's IT Outsourcing Industry Was Forced Into Existence by a Foreign-Exchange Rule
Notes on Asianometry's 2026-10-18 episode: India's software export business began with a rule requiring any company importing a computer to earn back double its price in software exports. This piece unpacks how a constraint built a capability, and the conditions under which that capability stops paying. Educational only; no investment advice, no stock recommendations, no price targets.
Independent to Do What? Christina Skinner on FSOC's Pivot and Central Bank Independence 2.0
Listening notes on Macro Musings (2026-10-19): Christina Skinner, just back from the US Treasury, on FSOC's new framing, how growth relates to financial stability, the supervisory posture toward AI, and the argument behind her forthcoming book. Educational notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Nobody Knows What a B200 Is Worth in Four Years — Odd Lots on the Trillion Dollar Question
Notes from the 2026-10-19 Bloomberg Odd Lots live show in Chicago, where DRW founder Don Wilson discussed GPU futures, compute hedging and token spreads. Personal listening notes for education only: no investment advice, no price targets, no stock recommendations. The contracts discussed are not yet trading and the regulatory situation may change.
Podcast Notes Weekly: Oct 12–Oct 18, 2026
The takeaways from 29 podcast notes I wrote this week (Asianometry, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Cheeky Pint, The Circuit and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.
A Car Stuck to a Wall, and a Number That Came In Three Times Too Small — Notes on Gooaye EP706
Listening notes on Gooaye EP706 (2026-10-17): how the Tesla Roadster demo is a jumping car rather than a flying one, and why a NT$5 billion margin-debt drop where the host expected NT$15-20 billion pushed him defensive. Educational commentary only, not investment advice; no tickers recommended and no price targets.
Year Three of the TSE's PBR Push: Naotaka Ikeda on What Comes After Disclosure
Notes on the 18 October 2026 Investor's Sunday interview with the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Naotaka Ikeda: disclosure rates, the ROE gap, and the fight over buybacks versus growth investment. Educational reflections, not investment advice.
Trump's Midterm, TSMC's Final Exam, and Who Got Flunked by Inflation | Notes on MacroMicro After Meeting EP.218
TSMC delivered 17% quarter-over-quarter and 50% year-over-year revenue growth and got no applause from the market; the same week, US core CPI came in above expectations for the second time in a row. These are my personal notes after listening to MacroMicro's After Meeting EP.218 from October 2026, written as a case for and a case against, ending with a reading method anyone can use. Educational discussion of method only; not investment advice, no stock recommendations, no price targets.
The Moment a Good Idea Wakes Up: David Byrne on Why Forgotten Things Come Back
Notes on Odd Lots (2026-10-17) with David Byrne on his book Sleeping Beauties: Roman concrete, Moby-Dick, and Minsky all came back after years dormant. Listener reflection for education only, no stock picks or price targets.