Investing & Markets
Chips, the AI supply chain, macro and money flows: slowly making sense of markets. 299 posts.
Should the Computer Sit in the Corner of the Office, or at the Center?
Notes after listening to Odd Lots interview Boris Cherny, who runs Claude Code at Anthropic. The part that stayed with me wasn't how capable the tool is. It was a study from the 1990s he brought up: companies bought the same computers, and only some of them got any productivity out of it. The difference was never the purchase.
The Last Short Seller on How AI Could 'Unwind' the S&P 500 — Notes on Meb Faber Show EP640 with Carson Block
Carson Block of Muddy Waters — the man Meb Faber calls 'the last short seller left in the world' — lays out an unsettling chain of logic on EP640: AI displaces high-paid knowledge workers, their 401(k) flows reverse, and the mega-caps that those flows inflated pull the S&P 500 down hard. Full summary, quotes, host and guest intros, and what we can take from it. A podcast listening note, educational.
AI Is Making Lawyers Busier: Jevons Paradox, Live on Odd Lots
Bloomberg's Odd Lots hosted Gary Wingens, chair of a major US law firm: due-diligence costs down 70%, yet more work than ever; billing rates up 10% while total client bills fall. A one-episode masterclass in whether AI destroys jobs — plus my own one-person-company confirmation.
How to Spot an Empty AI Money-Making Post — and Train Yourself to Think Deeper
The internet is full of 'office worker makes $2,000 a month with the latest AI' side-hustle marketing. This piece teaches you five fingerprints for spotting hollow content, a thirty-second wallet check, and six thinking habits you can practice daily — write down a dated prediction, explain it plainly, write your own answer first, ask how a claim could be falsified, think one step further, and cool off for 48 hours. Educational sharing, no accounts or platforms named, not investment advice, disclaimer at the end.
Certainty for Sale: What My Colleague Is Really Buying from That Finance Channel
A colleague started following a large Taiwanese stock-tutorial channel, and I didn't read it as poor judgment on his part. What he's buying isn't financial knowledge—it's the feeling that the market can be understood, predicted, and controlled. This piece uses behavioral finance and media literacy to unpack the six psychological needs these channels target so precisely, the free-trust-to-paid-course marketing funnel, and three questions you can carry with you to test any of them. An educational reflection—no channel is named, not investment advice, disclaimer at the end.
Gooaye EP678 Notes: Meta Just Put Compute Pricing in the Sunlight — the Fog Behind Dream Multiples Is Lifting
Personal notes on Gooaye EP678: Meta repurposing old GPUs for inference and renting them out — refuting the 'AI server bad-debt' short thesis while making compute pricing transparent, which pressures dream-multiple valuations; rotation inside optical communications; the broad component price-hike wave. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.
Statementdog (財報狗) EP538 Notes: While Everyone Cheers the Compute Boom, I'm Asking Who Got Left Out
Personal notes from Statementdog (財報狗) Podcast EP538: anti-bubble thinking, Korea's memory deleveraging, memory prices slowing but supply still tight, firms starting to rein in AI spend, and compute going tiered-and-cheaper. Plus how the episode echoes two things I've been practicing: separating noise from structure, and watching cross-market leverage. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.
A Few Things I Saw on X This Week: The Fastest Information Needs the Most Filtering
Personal trend notes after following a few sharp market voices on X: a 'dumbest thematic selloff' driven by noise, memory price hikes that shamed the doubters, the US-China humanoid-robot gap as a Sputnik moment, and $10T price targets as froth signals. X gives you the fastest information — and it's also where you most need to separate signal from noise. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.
Statementdog Podcast EP537 Notes: Cybersecurity, Software-Defined Defense, and Reading SaaS via 'Contract Liabilities'
Personal takeaways from Statementdog (財報狗) Podcast EP537 (industry deep-dive, cybersecurity special): AI-automated security, the new business of protecting AI, software-defined defense and counter-drone, and using contract liabilities to read a SaaS company's momentum. With a full glossary of terms and techniques, sectors worth researching, and references. Educational notes, not investment advice; disclaimer at the end.
Unreasonable People and the Power Law: Three Quiz Questions That Exposed the Cracks in My Investing Instincts
Notes from reading the introduction to Sebastian Mallaby's The Power Law: three quiz questions that reveal the gap between a retail investor's instincts and how the power law actually works — hit rate vs. the single winner, mean reversion vs. watering weeds and cutting flowers, courage vs. position sizing. Pure reflection and method education; disclaimer at the end.
Contract Liabilities: A Peek at How Much Future Revenue a Company Has Already Locked In
A contract liability is money a customer has paid before the company has delivered. Why it sits under liabilities, why it's a leading indicator of future revenue, and how to find it in the financial statements step by step. Pure method education; disclaimer at the end.