Mindset & Growth
How to think, how to judge, how to live with uncertainty: notes to myself, and to you. 61 posts.
Intelligence Gets Cheap: Cliff Sosin on Owning the Complements
Listening notes on Invest Like the Best EP.497. Cliff Sosin on the ceiling of intelligence, its complements (data, attention, physical proximity, scale), the diamond-shaped demand frontier, reality's speed limits, and why 80% of his fund sits in one name. Educational notes only, no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Restaurant Lifespans Are Measured in Dog Years: The Cost Structure Behind 29 Years in Chicago
Notes after listening to Bloomberg Odd Lots, 24 Oct 2026: North Pond owner Richard Mott on why independent fine dining has negative returns as an industry, why wine held at 33–34% of sales for 28 years and then fell to 24%, and how a shared kitchen spreads capital and licensing across many small food businesses. Educational notes on industry structure, not investment advice — no tickers, no price targets.
How Toto Wolff Built a £4.6bn F1 Team: One Flight, and the Exit Discipline He Has Kept for 25 Years
Notes from the 20 October 2026 episode of Cheeky Pint: Toto Wolff on the F1 cost cap, team valuation multiples, and how he liquidated nine dot-com holdings before the 2000 crash. Educational notes only — no investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Could OpenAI Push the US Into Recession? Steve Eisman on Concentration Risk, The Compound and Friends #864
On October 16, 2026, episode 864 of The Compound and Friends, Steve Eisman used Nvidia's five-customer receivables concentration and Oracle's OpenAI-dominated backlog to explain the AI chain's single point of failure. Listening notes plus the counter-case. Educational, not investment advice, no tickers recommended and no price targets.
Grown, Not Written: Notes on Nate Soares and AI Risk
Notes on the 2026-10-12 Odd Lots interview with MIRI president Nate Soares, unpacking his argument that reactive safety fails structurally for this technology, plus the conditions under which it breaks. Educational, not investment advice.
Does the Bigger Bankroll Always Win? A Man Who Bought Nokia Every Month Waited 25 Years to Break Even
A popular saying claims that with enough capital and patience you always win in the end. Roulette math and real dot-com stock prices show which half is true and which half hurts people. Educational and methodological, not stock advice.
The Sell-Side Indicator Is 0.3 Points From Sell, the VIX Is Asleep, and FICO's Moat Was Taken by a Pen Stroke
Listening notes on the What Are Your Thoughts? livestream from The Compound and Friends (6 October 2026): BofA's sell-side indicator sitting 0.3 percentage points from a sell signal, a VIX flatlined at 16 since March, Michael Burry's depreciation case undone by GPU rental prices, and FICO losing a real monopoly over one summer. Educational notes only — no investment advice, no price targets, and the judgements here may be wrong.
Is Gen Z Cooked? What I Took From Ed Elson's Round With The Compound
On October 2, 2026, The Compound and Friends hosted Ed Elson, co-host of Prof G Markets, for an argument that ran from whether AI is melting kids' brains to houses costing seven times annual income. These are listening notes and educational commentary — no investment advice, no buy or sell calls on any stock.
A Few Hundred Men, Two Empires: The Episode That Moved My Answer From Weapons to Diplomacy
Dwarkesh Podcast, 1 October 2026, with military historian Si Sheppard on how the Spanish toppled the Aztec and Inca empires. Listening notes on single points of failure, consent versus coercion, and the resource curse. Educational, not investment advice.
How Airlines Actually Hedge Fuel: The Solution a 44% Cost Line Forced Into Existence
Notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots, 2026-10-02, 'How Airlines Actually Hedge Higher Fuel Prices.' Former Qatar Airways group treasurer David Kang explains how he found the airline was structurally long crude through its fuel surcharge, and built the hedge around it. Educational only; no investment advice and no single-stock recommendations.
One Strikeout at the Tokyo Dome, and the Fake Skill a Batting Cage Builds
Notes on Gooaye EP700 (2026-09-26): Meng-Kung Hsieh played his second real baseball game at the Tokyo Dome — one hit, one strikeout — and used it to talk about the false confidence of simulated trading, the trust barrier facing Meta's new pocket device, and why momentum traders are currently grinding each other down. Educational personal notes, no investment advice.
Who Does a Diesel Export Ban Actually Save? Jan Stuart on the Spreads Nobody Is Reading
Notes on the 2026-09-25 Columbia Energy Exchange Iran Conflict Brief, where Piper Sandler's Jan Stuart unpacks loadings data, tanker rates, and the chain of costs behind a US diesel export ban. Educational commentary, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.
The World Is on Sale, America Charges a Premium: Notes on Dave Iben
Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #652 (2026-09-25): Kopernik co-CIO Dave Iben on the US holding two-thirds of world market cap, commodities down to single-digit index weight, platinum's incentive price, and the night Korea's president tried to seize power. Educational notes and personal observation, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.
Cooling the Heat Shield With Liquid Hydrogen — Notes on Valley of Depth's Stoke Space Factory Tour
On 2026-09-23, Valley of Depth toured Stoke Space's Seattle factory with CEO Andy Lapsa, covering the actively cooled metallic heat shield, the full-flow staged combustion engine, and the new Block 2 architecture. These are listening notes on how hardware companies retire their deadliest unknowns early — educational, not investment advice.
The Five Years Exxon Tried to Beat IBM — Notes on an Asianometry Episode
Asianometry's 2026-09-17 episode tells how an oil giant walked into the office equipment business and squared off against IBM. These are listening notes on separating a diagnosis from its prescription, how resources turn into ropes, and one question for deciding whether something is worth your time. Educational, not investment advice.
He Buys Stocks After They've Already Run: David Gardner's Thirty-Year Method
Notes from Behind the Balance Sheet #63 with David Gardner: why he buys high, why 'wildly overvalued' makes him more interested, and how the 'sleep number' turns position sizing into a question you can actually answer. Educational reading notes, no stock recommendations or price targets.
Gooaye EP697: When Three People Who Can't Stand Each Other Suddenly Agree
Notes on Gooaye EP697 — unpacking the motives behind Big AI's call for regulation, how regulatory capture works, and why 'slowing down' may consume more compute, not less. Educational; no stock picks or price targets.
Same River, Different Water
Notes on The Compound and Friends, September 11, 2026: Jens Nordvig on how the force behind Korea's stock market changed hands, why hyperscaler bonds and US Treasuries now compete for the same buyers, Bessent's 'I am the house,' and which data to check when retail stocks collapse. Educational, not investment advice.
Washington Buys Into Venezuelan Oil: A Very Big Deal That May Not Matter Much
Notes from a Columbia Energy Exchange conversation on shortcuts versus institutions, and how to read a headline when the investment cycle outlasts the political one. Educational only, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.
Expensive Is Not a Feeling You Measure With
Notes on The Compound and Friends, September 8, 2026: what it means that only 27 S&P 500 stocks trade above 40x forward earnings, why 'invest in what you know' keeps failing, and the one ingredient this mania is missing. Educational, not investment advice.
A Dynamic Country Inside a Collapsing System — Notes on Walter Russell Mead and Why America Keeps Winning
Notes from Invest Like the Best EP.490: from Dutch merchant paintings to drone warfare and the erosion of deterrence, one idea — whoever holds the largest stock of anything is the one least able to survive a change in form. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers or price targets.
How Morgan Stanley Picks Stocks: A Conversation About Which Losses You Can Wait Out
Notes from listening to The Compound and Friends interview Morgan Stanley portfolio manager Dan Skelly. Covers the structure behind this quarter's earnings, how the AI capex cycle differs from 2000, and the line between temporary and permanent impairment in sell discipline. Educational reflection only; no investment advice and no stock recommendations.
What Is Speed Actually Worth? — Notes on a Tech Wave Episode About Cerebras
Starting from one podcast episode's business-side analysis: does the ultra-fast inference market exist, how should we read customer concentration, and why supply-chain numbers are usually a lagging indicator. Educational only, not investment advice; no stock recommendations or price targets.
The Things He Didn't Do Are the Record: Notes on The Compound's Take on Tim Cook, Snowflake, and the AI Debate
Reflections on the 2026-09-01 episode of The Compound and Friends: why decisions not taken are the hardest ones, what the spring software selloff revealed about borrowed conviction, and how to tell a broken method from a normal drawdown. Educational, not investment advice; no tickers recommended, no price targets.