Videos
One clip, one idea. The card below each video links to the full article.
To See Where a System Is Stuck, Follow the Money
Power is what AI is most short of, yet it is under five percent of frontier model spending. People stopped fighting for it, the money detoured into chip efficiency, and the bottleneck moved from the grid to packaging and substrates.
- Power is under five percent of frontier model spending: forecasts call for 200 to 300 GW by 2030, but what is being built covers a little over 100 GW. When you can't win something you stop bidding, and money goes to whatever routes around it.
- Money flows into chip efficiency, chips get bigger, packaging gets harder and substrate yields fall, so the bottleneck moves to packaging and substrates. Cooling, copper-clad laminate and substrate margins are at records; only the assemblers are falling.
- Before acting on a shortage headline, ask three questions: are people fighting for it or routing around it, where did the money go, and are margins rising on that path. When inventory values explode, check inventory days: flat days mean higher prices, not unsold goods.
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When Something Is Scarce, Ask Who Gets It
One cleanroom floor makes four consumer memory parts or one HBM stack that sells for a hundred times more. Capacity pours into the high end: some buyers get served, some get turned away.
- The same cleanroom floor makes four consumer memory parts or one top-end HBM stack that sells for a hundred times more, so capacity pours into the high end.
- Totals tell you the pie is growing; allocation tells you who gets a slice. Business lost by buyers who can't get parts never shows up on a memory maker's income statement.
- Before acting on a shortage headline, ask three questions: where is supply flowing, which side are my holdings on, and what signal would tell me the allocation has changed.
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Why Treasuries Became Risky Again
Safety is a condition, not a property. A 70-second explainer on why the 30-year Treasury now pays far more than China's.
- Safety is a condition, not a property. The same bond protects you in a demand recession and hurts you in a supply shock.
- Before 2000, bonds and stocks fell together during stagflation. After 2000, recessions came with low inflation, and Treasuries became the hedge we got used to.
- Before you buy any hedge, ask which world it helps you in.
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