Blog
Written for people to read and for AI to cite, so every claim keeps its source, its test and the way it could be proven wrong.
Stocks Everyone Hates: Jonathan Boyar on Buying What the Baskets Dumped
Notes from the 2026-09-25 episode of The Compound and Friends. Value investor Jonathan Boyar on why only 23.2% of large caps beat the index over ten years, how AI-driven basket selling creates dislocations, and the line between a broken stock and a broken business. Educational, not investment advice; individual stocks carry risk.
MacroVoices #551 with Michael Every: Oil Came Back Down, the Risk Didn't Leave
Notes from MacroVoices episode 551 (September 24, 2026), where Rabobank strategist Michael Every discusses Iran, Russia-Ukraine, diesel, Greenland, China and stablecoins. These are listening notes about telling apart 'the conditions changed' from 'people stopped looking'; educational only, not investment advice, with no tickers, price targets or entry points.
The World Is on Sale, America Charges a Premium: Notes on Dave Iben
Listening notes on The Meb Faber Show #652 (2026-09-25): Kopernik co-CIO Dave Iben on the US holding two-thirds of world market cap, commodities down to single-digit index weight, platinum's incentive price, and the night Korea's president tried to seize power. Educational notes and personal observation, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.
Hollywood Was Sinking Before AI Arrived — Notes on Odd Lots Live in LA
Bloomberg Odd Lots, 2026-09-25, live in Los Angeles: writer Hayes Davenport tells the last decade through shoot days — from 40,000 to under 20,000. Educational notes, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
No Gas Stations at Sea: Catalyst on Anduril's Maritime Energy Problem
Notes on the 2026-09-24 episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann, featuring Anduril's Andrew Nus on energy density, certification timelines, and nuclear-powered shipping. Personal commentary for educational purposes; not investment advice, no stock picks or price targets.
Gooaye EP699: The Thing Everyone Says Is Dying Usually Outlives the Forecast
Notes on Gooaye EP699 (23 Sep 2026): a rumored 40-to-1 CPU-to-GPU ratio with no traceable source, a 15–20% DSP price hike, and how to take apart a number before you trust it. Educational commentary, not investment advice — no tickers recommended, no price targets.
When Content Becomes Free: Odd Lots on How AI Is Upending Social Media Work
From the September 24, 2026 Odd Lots live show in Los Angeles: Taylor Lorenz and Rachel Karten on what AI actually did to social and marketing work — bosses outsourcing judgment to models, audiences who say they hate AI content but watch it anyway, and how-to creators losing ground. Listening notes and reflections; educational, not investment advice.
Cooling the Heat Shield With Liquid Hydrogen — Notes on Valley of Depth's Stoke Space Factory Tour
On 2026-09-23, Valley of Depth toured Stoke Space's Seattle factory with CEO Andy Lapsa, covering the actively cooled metallic heat shield, the full-flow staged combustion engine, and the new Block 2 architecture. These are listening notes on how hardware companies retire their deadliest unknowns early — educational, not investment advice.
China's Oil Shock That Wasn't: Three Shifts From Columbia Energy Exchange
On 22 September 2026, Columbia Energy Exchange hosted Erica Downs and Michal Meidan on why China cut crude imports after the Hormuz disruption instead of scrambling for barrels. Listener notes on buffers, state pricing, and energy security moving from resources to technology. Educational, not investment advice.
The Story Flips Faster Than You Do: Meta's 28% Three Weeks and Admitting I Was Wrong on Netflix
Notes from the September 22, 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends: Meta added roughly $450 billion in three weeks after launching Muse, why weak market breadth today isn't 1999, why only 23% of large-cap stocks beat the index over ten years, and how to think about the 10-year Treasury back at 5%. Educational, not investment advice.
Cleared, But Not Adopted: SpectraWAVE's Former CEO on Why Proof Looks Different at Every Stage
Notes on the 2026-09-21 Medsider interview with former SpectraWAVE CEO Eman Namati: what scientists unlearn as CEOs, how to define an MVP for the stage you're in, why clearance evidence and adoption evidence are different animals, and lessons on fundraising and acquisition. Educational, not investment advice.
Where Copper Runs Out: Notes on Ayar Labs CEO Mark Wade and Co-Packaged Optics
Listening notes on The Circuit's 2026-09-21 interview with Ayar Labs CEO Mark Wade: why AI data centers are gated by chip-to-chip links, which step of optical interconnect is hardest, and how to check the adoption timeline against reality. Personal educational notes; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.
Enough Fear to Fill the Trenches, Yet War Still Needs a Decision: Reading Westad's The Coming Storm
Yale historian Odd Arne Westad sets pre-1914 Europe beside today's multipolar world. The passage I keep coming back to: fear and resentment between Great Powers are never in short supply, and what actually pushed the world into war was a handful of concrete decisions made during a crisis. An educational reading note, not investment advice.
The Red Queen's Treadmill: Gabe Stengel on Investing Superintelligence and Where It Gets Stuck
Notes on Invest Like the Best EP.492 with Rogo co-founder Gabe Stengel: the first-mover disadvantage of years with a bad product, a managing director marking up decks on an iPad, the penny the AI labs won't stop to pick up, why auditability beats accuracy, and what edge humans keep. Personal listening notes for education only, not investment advice, and no stock recommendations.
The Machine Works, So Why Did TSMC Wait? Notes on Supply Chained's Episode About High NA EUV and 12-Inch Masks
Supply Chained's 2026-09-21 episode covers ASML and TSMC's push toward 12-inch EUV photomasks: why High NA halved throughput, why TSMC waited until 2030, and who will make the mask blanks. Personal listening notes for educational purposes only; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.
Why Is Jev, a Model That Only Answers Multiple Choice, Everywhere? Three Questions from TechWave EP155
Listening notes on TechWave EP155 (2026-09-21): Jev is a classification model that outputs only probabilities over the options you give it. It is 200x faster and 400x cheaper, but what did it give up to get there, and what does it mean for AI agents and model routing? Educational content only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Why Intel's Optane Ended: A Memory Caught Between DRAM and NAND | Asianometry Listening Notes
Notes after listening to Asianometry's 2026-09-20 episode on Intel and Micron's 3D XPoint / Optane, from phase change memory's origins to its 2022 wind-down. Educational content only, not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock; technology products and the companies behind them carry high uncertainty.
Silicon Photonics Is Still Waiting for a Common Track Width: A Materials Insider Turned Analyst on Advanced Packaging's Bottlenecks
Notes from CMoney's Caibaogou podcast, episode 566. SemiVision founder Jett moved from the semiconductor materials business into industry research. He talks about the qualification barrier for permanent materials, hedged bets while silicon photonics lacks a standard, optical testing as a bottleneck, full capacity crowding out startups, and why the people who know the most have the least reason to speak. Educational industry observation only; not investment advice, and industry judgments can be wrong.
Treasuries Are the Easiest Thing to Sell? A New York Fed Advisor on the Plumbing of the Bond Market | Macro Musings Notes
Listening notes on Macro Musings with New York Fed Treasury advisor Ellen Correia Golay: how off-the-run Treasuries lose liquidity as they age, and what all-to-all trading, central clearing, and transparency are each trying to fix. Educational notes only, not investment advice, and no securities are recommended.
The World Spends $200 Billion a Year Fighting Money Laundering. Why Doesn't It Work? Notes on Odd Lots, $100 Bills, Handbags and Carousel Fraud
My notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots (2026-09-20): journalist Oliver Bullough on where the money-laundering estimates come from, how value crosses borders as cash and goods, the paradox of banknotes and seigniorage. Educational content only, not investment advice, no stock recommendations.
Software in Silicon Valley, Hardware in LA: Notes from Odd Lots Live on American Reindustrialization
Listening notes on Bloomberg Odd Lots' live LA episode: where the bottleneck sits in autonomous factories, how to split in-house work from outsourcing, why tariffs cut both ways, and how to tell reindustrialization companies that build things from those that tell stories. Educational only; not investment advice and not a recommendation of any stock.
Upstream's Time Has Already Been Sold: Lining Up One Week of Public Posts
Seven days of public posts from an independent researcher covering AI infrastructure upstream. Laid side by side, four threads surface: price hikes compound, 2027 to 2031 capacity is already contracted, the photonics bottleneck retreated one layer upstream, and the market pays opposite prices for certainty and for story.
Podcast Notes Weekly: Sep 14–Sep 20, 2026
The takeaways from 31 podcast notes I wrote this week (Acquired, Asianometry, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Lunchuizhe (掄錘者) and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.
Code Words, Scapegoats, and a Choppy Tape — Notes on Gooaye EP698
From an indie booth at Tokyo Game Show to the AMD price-hike story and the CCL downgrade panic, plus an index at highs while everyone turns bearish. Listener notes on reading a bear case that only covers half the chain. Educational, not investment advice.