Podcast Notes Weekly: Nov 02–Nov 08, 2026
The takeaways from 25 podcast notes I wrote this week (Asianometry, Macro Musings with David Beckworth, Bloomberg Odd Lots, Serenity Weekly, Caibaogou (財報狗), The Circuit and more). Two to four sentences per episode, with a link to each full post.
Contents
- What I listened to this week
- Asianometry — episode of 2026-11-02
- Macro Musings with David Beckworth — episode of 2026-11-02
- Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-02
- Serenity Weekly — week of 2026-11-02
- Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-01
- The Circuit — week of 2026-11-02
- Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-03
- Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-03
- Cheeky Pint — episode of 2026-11-03
- Columbia Energy Exchange — episode of 2026-11-03
- The Compound and Friends — episode of 2026-11-04
- Invest Like the Best — episode of 2026-11-04
- Supply Chained — episode of 2026-11-03
- Gooaye (股癌) — EP711
- Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-05
- War on the Rocks — episode of 2026-11-04
- Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-05
- Catalyst with Shayle Kann — episode of 2026-11-05
- Invest Like the Best — episode of 2026-11-06
- MacroVoices — episode of 2026-11-05
- The Meb Faber Show — episode of 2026-11-06
- Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-06
- The Compound and Friends — episode of 2026-11-06
- Gooaye (股癌) — EP712
- MacroMicro (財經M平方) — EP221
What you would draw in, first stretch out; what you would weaken, first strengthen; what you would discard, first raise up; what you would take, first give.
—— Laozi, “Dao De Jing,” chapter 36 (Spring and Autumn period; my translation)
What I listened to this week
This week (Nov 02–Nov 08) I wrote notes on 25 podcast episodes. Here are the takeaways from each one in one place. If an episode catches your eye, the link under it goes to the full post.
Asianometry — episode of 2026-11-02
Notes on the 2 November 2026 Asianometry episode profiling the Chinese AI lab Zhipu (Z.ai) and its GLM models. The video says R&D spending runs at more than twice revenue while the frontier models are released as open weights; market cap peaked at $170 billion in June 2026 and had settled to roughly $50 billion as of the video.
Read the full post: Asianometry: Zhipu Gives Away Its Best Models — What Does It Get Back?
Macro Musings with David Beckworth — episode of 2026-11-02
In the 2 November 2026 episode of Macro Musings, host David Beckworth talks with Stanford finance professor Darrell Duffie about why the Fed’s balance sheet won’t shrink back: reserve balances broke things at $1.4 trillion in 2019, and the same thing happened again this round at roughly $3 trillion. Duffie ranks four tools by difficulty; tiering interest on reserves is the most powerful and the hardest.
Read the full post: Macro Musings notes: that morning they had the reserves and still wouldn’t lend
Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-02
Notes from listening to Odd Lots, 2026-11-02, on the US structured notes market — market size, auto-callables, and the hedging pressure on dealers.
Read the full post: The $300 Billion Structured Notes Market: Who Pays That Coupon
Serenity Weekly — week of 2026-11-02
This week the tight spot moved one tier upstream, from modules and lasers to raw substrate material — and the money buying all of it comes from the capital markets. When both of those hold at once, the field worth watching shifts away from pricing and onto something else: whether anyone upstream has started collecting prepayments from buyers.
Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-01
Listening notes on Statementdog podcast episode 574: Vincent, former executive director in asset management at JPMorgan and co-founder of Manbao Pro, on moving into healthcare research without a healthcare background, how to break company value into R and N, and why understanding a company does not mean you can see the tide coming.
The Circuit — week of 2026-11-02
Notes on the 2 November 2026 episode of The Circuit, where Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg read Anthropic’s S-1 end to end: the company was profitable and cash-flow positive in Q2 with gross margin estimated at 70-80%, yet Jay puts its compute purchase commitments over the next five years somewhere between $500bn and $800bn — while both labs may be paying roughly half the market rate for compute today. The episode also covers Intel’s weak Q4 guide and the reported Marvell-Lumentum deal. All figures are readings as of the recording date, 30 October.
Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-03
Notes on the Odd Lots Election Day special published 3 November 2026 and recorded on 29 October, where Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal talk with Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin about polling error: Trump’s approval at about 37% with only 19% strong approval, Democrats up roughly nine points on the generic ballot, a Marist poll of Maine that goes from D+9 among registered voters to D+2 after a likely-voter model, and a 0.995 correlation between prediction markets and his own model at the state level. Every number is a snapshot from the recording date.
Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-03
Listening notes on Statementdog podcast episode 575: Statementdog’s chief analyst Xiaozhen uses TSMC’s third quarter split — high performance computing up 83% year on year while smartphone growth fell to 4.3% — to explain why leading-edge capacity stays short through 2027, and how HBM base dies and server support chips push the shortage down into mature nodes. The piece also takes apart the weakest links in that reasoning and names two conditions you can track.
Cheeky Pint — episode of 2026-11-03
Notes on the Cheeky Pint episode published 3 November 2026, where Scott Nolan of General Matter explains why the United States has no uranium enrichment capacity of its own. He says about a quarter of American enriched uranium is still imported from Russia and the congressional ban takes effect on 1 January 2028, and that at today’s market prices fuel can account for half the levelised cost of energy for some small reactor designs.
Columbia Energy Exchange — episode of 2026-11-03
Notes on the Columbia Energy Exchange episode published 3 November 2026, where Katie Dykes — until this summer the commissioner of Connecticut’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection — explains why there is no single lever for electricity affordability but roughly 25 of them, spread across the legislature, the utility commission and FERC. Transmission is still the smallest share of the bill, yet for Connecticut ratepayers it has nearly doubled since 2015.
The Compound and Friends — episode of 2026-11-04
Notes on the What Are Your Thoughts livestream from The Compound and Friends, 4 November 2026, where Josh Brown and Michael Batnick lay out the charts: two thirds of S&P 500 members have had a 20% drawdown this year, in line with the historical average, while the tech column reads 93%; the equal-weight index beat the top 20 by the widest margin since 2009; Alphabet shed roughly 500 billion dollars of market cap in a day and sits 30% off its high; Apple closed higher on 65% of days the semiconductor index fell 2% or more. All figures are readings from that day’s session and after-hours.
Invest Like the Best — episode of 2026-11-04
In episode 498 of Invest Like the Best, published 4 November 2026, Patrick O’Shaughnessy talks with infrastructure investor Martin Casado about frontier model economics: he says the frontier has taken 80%+ of the market on a dollar-weighted basis for three years running, while a single model’s lifespan is three to six months, so slipping three months on the next release can cost you the whole market. He also says the real shift is that capital can finally be pointed at engineering.
Read the full post: Invest Like the Best notes: a model only lives three to six months
Supply Chained — episode of 2026-11-03
Listening notes on Supply Chained, 3 November 2026, “High-Bandwidth Flash”: John of Asianometry and Tim Culpan of Culpium start from the fact that HBM stacking stops around twenty dies, then take apart what HBF — flash packaged like HBM next to the compute die — is trying to solve and where it gets stuck: enormous capacity, but a write endurance of only ten to a hundred thousand cycles, which a KV cache would burn through in a month or two. The piece lays out the conditions the argument depends on, and where Taiwan sits in metrology and test.
Gooaye (股癌) — EP711
Notes on Gooaye EP711 (4 November 2026): host Hsieh Meng-kung’s read on Palantir’s Q3 call — L3Harris fine-tuning an open-weight model on its own data and beating its incumbent frontier model inside 48 hours at 95% lower cost, and a 30-billion-parameter post-trained model outperforming a three-trillion-parameter general model on narrow tasks — plus why he thinks the money lands with system integrators, AMD’s Q3 numbers, where the term value trap actually applies, and margin debt as a panic gauge.
Read the full post: Gooaye EP711: You Don’t Need a Cow in the Yard to Drink Milk
Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-05
Notes on the 5 November 2026 episode of Odd Lots, where hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal talk with James Bosworth — non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and author of the Latin America Risk Report — about Brazil’s upset: the night before the vote Bosworth had Flavio Bolsonaro at a 64% chance of winning, the prediction markets had him at 80% and briefly 87%, Lula won by four million votes, and turnout moved less than 2% between the two rounds.
Read the full post: Odd Lots: Coming First in Round One Was the Worst Thing That Happened to Him
War on the Rocks — episode of 2026-11-04
War on the Rocks, recorded 2026-11-04 at the AUSA annual meeting, with Lt. Gen. Matthew W. McFarland (I Corps) and Maj.
Read the full post: Spread Out to Stay Alive: War on the Rocks on the Army’s C2 Reboot
Caibaogou (財報狗) — episode of 2026-11-05
Listening notes on Statementdog podcast episode 576: chief analyst Sky puts this week’s drawdown down to a timing deferral caused by politics blocking the supply side, while on demand he cites Palantir’s latest call, where sovereign AI commercial revenue has passed government revenue; the other half of the episode is Marvell buying Lumentum for what the inside of the rack looks like three to five years out. The piece takes apart the weakest links in that reasoning and names the conditions you can track.
Catalyst with Shayle Kann — episode of 2026-11-05
America’s nuclear restart is pinched at enrichment: US-owned share of the global market fell from 86% to under 0.1%, and a legal cliff on Russian uranium lands January 1, 2028. Notes on the November 5, 2026 episode of Catalyst with Shayle Kann, featuring General Matter CEO Scott Nolan on why the five-step nuclear fuel chain breaks at enrichment.
Read the full post: Enrichment Is Step Three: Catalyst on the Geopolitics of Nuclear Fuel
Invest Like the Best — episode of 2026-11-06
Notes on the Invest Like the Best episode 499, published 6 November 2026, where host Patrick O’Shaughnessy talks with Ramtin Naimi, founder of the seed firm Abstract. He scores today’s opportunity set a 10 out of 10 and its frothiness a 6.5 to 7 against a 10 for 2021, and says the spread between the lowest and highest price on the same company now runs 4x.
MacroVoices — episode of 2026-11-05
Notes on MacroVoices episode 557, published 5 November 2026, in which Erik Townsend talks with Rabobank global strategist Michael Every about what the Democratic sweep of both chambers means for markets and geopolitics. Every’s core claim: a vote against war does not stop war arriving, and repealing tariffs does not buy cheaper energy or a stronger America, because tariffs are the remaining lever for re-industrialisation and re-industrialisation is what pays for the military-industrial base behind America’s policeman role. Reference readings are oil down roughly $18 from Friday’s high to the day after the count, and the dollar index at 101.18, with the near-term variable sitting in the window before the new Congress is seated in January.
The Meb Faber Show — episode of 2026-11-06
Notes on episode 656 of The Meb Faber Show, published 6 November 2026, where Meb Faber talks with Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale and 44 years in the same job, about the rate cycle and how bubbles actually end: the S&P 500’s twelve-month forward P/E has fallen from 23–24 times to below 19, tech from 33 to around 20. Edwards thinks the market has priced two or three hikes where 200 basis points are needed, that 100 basis points more on yields would be curtains for equities, and that ten-year Treasury yields head to 10% over the long run — with a forward P/E he imagines near six and the S&P down 50 to 60% at some stage. He also concedes quantitative easing had him wrong for twenty years.
Read the full post: The Meb Faber Show: Dance If You Like — Just Count Your Steps to the Fire Exit
Bloomberg Odd Lots — episode of 2026-11-06
Notes on the Odd Lots episode published 6 November 2026 and recorded on 5 November, where Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America about the macro implications of Democrats taking both the House and the Senate: Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett had said the S&P 500 could fall 10% on a Democratic win, the index rose about 1.5% the day after the count, and on the recording day Tesla was down 10% and SpaceX another 7.5%. Skanda’s read is that six-year Senate terms tilt Fed appointments for four to six years and that inflation may sit near 3% for longer than the market expects. Every number is a reading from the recording date.
Read the full post: Odd Lots: Texas Is Still Texas — Only the People Issuing the Permits Changed
The Compound and Friends — episode of 2026-11-06
Notes on the 6 November 2026 episode of The Compound and Friends with Daniel Clifton, who runs a Washington policy research team, on the market after the 3 November midterms. His throughline is data centers: 40 local ballot measures on them that night, 38 of which went against the industry, and he dates the relative peak in AI hardware stocks versus the S&P 500 to the third week of June, when Virginia passed a $600 million data center tax and the Texas governor imposed a moratorium. He also brings the other side: since 1938 the S&P 500 has never fallen in the twelve months after a midterm, averaging 14.8%. All figures are as stated on the show.
Read the full post: The Compound and Friends: The Data Center Top Was a Tax Increase in June
Gooaye (股癌) — EP712
In Gooaye EP712 (7 November 2026), host Hsieh Meng-kung was in Japan when Taiwan’s market opened sharply lower the day before. He had bought the Wednesday dip, bought again at Friday’s open, then day-traded part of that dip position out mid-session — and regretted it after the National Stabilization Fund stepped in. He compresses post-midterm AI policy risk into one observable switch: whether new data center permits get blocked. Orders through 2027 are unaffected, he says; what a permit freeze would hit is 2028–2029 revenue, and the market prices that early.
Read the full post: Gooaye EP712: The Day the Market Broke, He Went to Disneyland
MacroMicro (財經M平方) — EP221
The 2027 compute is already under construction, and existing moratoria clip only about 2.3GW of it — some 6%. The variable is the 62GW slated for 2028, roughly 30GW of which waits on states legislating first and permitting after.
This article is an educational discussion of investment method. It is not advice to buy or sell any individual security, offers no target prices, and does not analyze any current holding. Investing carries risk; make your own decisions or consult a qualified professional.
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