Research Notes

AI tools, certifications, books and small experiments, written down while learning. 73 posts.

Why We Freeze an Expiry Date onto Every Prediction
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Why We Freeze an Expiry Date onto Every Prediction

The design philosophy behind a prediction-scoring system: pre-register the criteria, pair naive hit rate with a benchmark, refuse to conclude on thin samples, and handle conditional forecasts honestly. It is really about how not to fool yourself.